A Framework for Restrictive Measures has been developed to help the country to go about daily living as much as possible, while managing the behaviour of the virus. The Framework consists of 5 Levels with the as part of a "Plan for Living with COVID-19".
Recent news - Progress of the Pandemic.
The 22nd of October was the day Ireland planned to have finished completely with the restrictions, social distancing, face coverings, need for vaccine passes to enter restaurants and social areas, opening of clubs music venues and sporting venues. This was particularly expected in view of the vaccination take up with over 91% of the population over 12 immunised. However the rate unexpectedly started to rise about two weeks prior to that and has continued to do so. Why?
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It is thought that the number of unvaccinated (around 300k) are contributing substantially to those hospitalised (about 60%) but this means that there are still a number of vaccinated needing hospital care. It appears that the vaccination seems to loose some of its efficacy after six months. Also attention is drawn to the fact that Ireland is a part of the British/Irish free travel area and the rise in the number of cases is the British territories is feeding into Ireland's cases (see graphs from BBC NI news report 23 October 2021). Also with the rise in the figures of those vaccinated people probably eased off off on adhering to the expert advice. Whatever the reason the expected easing did happen but with important changes. Face coverings and social distancing were to continue and the requirement of passes to enter restaurants, music venues and nightclubs would continue until well into next year. A programme of booster jabs has been commenced for the over 80s, those in care homes and those with previous serious conditions. It is also hoped to commence a booster programme for the over sixties at the end of the month. This may be continued to younger population later. Figures of fatalities continue to rise though the number of deaths, though also rising, is not on the same scale as the numbers of cases.
It looks like COVID 19 is here to stay and we have to learn to live with it.
23/10/2021
The end of August marked a significent change in Ireland. Plans were announced for the cautious relaxation of restrictions culminating to return to near to normal by 22nd October. Figures appear contradictory in that figures of actual cases continued to rise whereas the number of cases needing hospitalisation did not rise at anything like the rise that occured earlier this year. Deaths also are mercifully low as well. The great majority of these cases are among the unvaccinated. The extraordinary uptake of the vaccination programme has shown its effect. All from the age of 12 are eligible for receiving the vaccination. Indeed today (6th Sept), the figures for vaccination were among the highest in the European Union. This table shows the progress.
In Northern Ireland the vaccination uptake although initially quite high it is not now as high and the figures there reflect this especially in the level of deaths being reported. The fact that both jurisdictions are operating different systems does create difficulties.The emphasis is gradually shifting to personal responsibility in each area though certain restrictions will remain until well into 2022:
- Use of face coverings in enclosed areas, public transport and shops
- Maintaining social distancing
- Personal hygiene - washing hands.
An campaign for booster vaccinations for the vulnerable, health service workers and over 65s is envisaged towards the end of the year.
6th September 2021
Since the last post (2nd July) the situation is Ireland continues to return to "normalcy". Vaccinations are proceeding at an incredible pace and now just over 80% are fully vaccinated in a pobulation of 4.98million. Because of the Delta Varient the daily figures have increased markedly - this is the 4th wave - the figures of hospitalisations although increasing is nowhere near the figures in previous waves. Now the majority of cases is in the under 35 year age group.The vast majority of those over that age are fully vaccinated.
Vaccinations of all over 12 will be in progress from the first week of August and the medical officials of the state can see the removing of most restrictions within a matter of weeks although strongly urge that excercise of caution be continued well into the future.
Ireland since mid July participates in the European Union's Digital COVID certificate fro travelling throughout the Union.
The North of Ireland, which operated under a different system has some problems with the health system dealing with the level of outbreaks. Nevertheless they have opened at a faster rate than in the Republic. The daily rate of outbreaks there is roughly the same as in the Republic though the population is about 1.8million.
Deaths in both regions is very low about 5 in seven days.
30th July 2021
The situation in Ireland could be said to have stalled.
There was a plan which stated that a further opening up of venues to allow further congregating indoors such as indoor dining would commence on the 5th July 2021. But in the words of the Scottish bard, "the best laid plans of mice and men gan aft agley!" While figures looked good at the beginning of the month of June - there was a very slow fall in the daily numbers of cases and a more steep fall in the number of deaths there was a steady and gratifying fall in the number of hospital admissions and the number in intensive care was also very low (in comparison to earlier in the year). Similar features were noted in the north as well. But!
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The start of a 4th Wave (14 day average daily reports) |
Throughout the month a steady increase was noted in the number of cases involving what has become known as the Delta Variant - as of early July this is up to 70% of cases. This was seen first in India and quickly spread into Britain where it quickly established itself as the dominant variant. It was a game changer there because they had opted for the Astra Zenica vaccine and had great success in innoculating a very large number of the population with the first dose. The second dose was not scheduled until around twelve weeks from the first. The problem was that the first dose particular vaccine was not as effective against this strain and figures began to rise again steeply.
In Ireland we are about three weeks behind Britain in vaccinations and we are not as dependent on the AZ vaccine but it had been used in the vaccinations of the 50 to 60 year olds so they are thus more vulnerable. The length of time between jabs was decreased to 8 and then to 4 weeks - it is hoped tis group will be fully vaccinated by mid July or earlier. Another perhaps unforeseen problem was that the younger 18 to 40 age groups who were thought to be reasonably resiliant now became the more infected group. The Government advisors issued a stark message to the Government - another wave is coming and it could be really bad, overcoming the health service and thousands of deaths unless a break was applied.
This is also echoed in the latest warning from the WHO stating that Europe was alarmingly close to being an epicentre of the disease in a very short time.
Last Monday the Government halted the opening at least until mid-month. During the week they also changed the vaccination programme. It had been progressing very smoothly on an age bases starting with the oldest and was now down to the late 30s. This was changed so that people between the ages of 18 to 30 could register to receive the Jansen & Jansen (one jab vaccination) or the Astra Zenica (2 Jab) from the 5th July in their local pharmacy. This would run in parallel with the existing system. As always this is dependant on the supply of vaccines. The Government have also managed to secure an extra million Pfizer and Moderna vaccines from the untaken up stock in Romania..
We are in effect now in a race between vaccinations and a Delta Variant surge.
The end of May saw a flurry of dates and recomendations and hopes from the Irish Government.
The Hacking of the Health Service IT system (14th May 2021) severely effected the general health service however the Vaccination Programme was largely unaffected as it operates under a separate dedicated system. However the reporting statistics publication was severely curtailed. Reports on daily news cases and numbers hospitalised and/or in intensive care has continued albeit with a warning that these may be updated later. This figures show a steady figure of around 400 cases per day, deaths reported have virtually collapsed and cases in hopitals an IC have shown a steady decline. |
Daily figures showing the 3 waves |
The Government have felt able to announce several "opening" dates. However Current government advice is to avoid non-essential international travel but internal public transport is increased to 50% capacity (was 25%).2nd June: Hotels & Guest house may reopen.
9th June: Visitors to your home; Weddings: 25 people can attend a wedding celebration or reception; Outdoor sports matches can take place; Gyms, swimming pools, leisure centres can reopen for individual training only; Outdoor services in Restaraunts and bars;
5th July: 50 people can attend a wedding celebration or reception; Indoor services for Bars and restaurants can resume; Organised indoor events Maximum of 50 attendees at the majority of venues; Maximum of 100 can attend events in larger venues with strict public health measures in place; Maximum of 200 attendees for the majority of venues for rganised outdoor events; Maximum of 500 for outdoor venues with a minimum accredited capacity of 5,000; Indoor training, exercise and dance activities can recommence in pods of up to 6.
19th July: Depending on the prevailing public health situation at the time, Ireland will operate the EU Digital COVID Certificate (DCC) for travel originating within the EU/EEA
Further changes are anticipated for August.
There is a certain nervousness because of the speedy spread of the so-called Indian variant in Britain and the Government still has the option of reintroducing or delaying things. There have been some cases in Ireland of this variant. See "Ireland's progress will be reviewed in June" - Taoiseach (Head of Government)/ It is thought that about 50% of the population has received at least one vaccine injection.(Over a million were inoculated during May and about 20% of the population is fully vaccinated.)
31 May 2021
The end of April was marked by a flurry of announcements heralding the re-opening of "normality" in Ireland. In the north, which commenced an innoculation programme in line with the British system in December 2020, meant a marked improvement in things leading to an earlier opening-up then in the rest of the island. This part participates in the European Union's acquisition programme. There were problems with supply at the start but as vaccines are received they are administered on an age and vulnerability basis and it is reckoned that things will be very much the same by June.
Schools returned after Easter holidays, the construction industry also returned and a schedule of "openings" over the next few weeks including travel throughout the island (for the first time since Christmas Eve!) has been announced by the Government. It is expected that over 80% of the population will have received full innoculation.
The incidence of the disease is still stable and very slowly decreasing. Nevertheless the programme of innoculation is proceeding well and shows remarkable results especially in the number of cases needing hospitalisations and reducing numbers of deaths.
In automation the number of stories about equipment used both in the production or in treatment is very marked in the past month in particular. This one on vaccine bottles quality arrived this morning for example. 13 Bealtaine 2021
Here in Ireland though there has been marked improvement since the grim days of early January the number of outbreaks still exceed the levels in the first surge of spring 2020. The picture shows first of all a swift fall from the heights of over 8000 cases per day down to around 500 per day. The number of daily deaths also seems to be plateauing at around four or five.
There are however some good things happening. The first is the level of vaccinations is reving up and today the one millionth jab will have been administered. Because of this there is a marked decrease in the number of people needing admittance to hospital or to ICU as a result of the condition. There has been controversy over the acquisition of sufficient quantities of vaccine particularly the Astra Zenica one which seems to have had great difficult in delivering its promised quantity. Ireland is part of the EU and the negotiations were carried out on behalf of the whole 27 countries. Ireland's share is approx 1% and as soon as they are delivered they are administered within a two or three day period.
The vaccine is being distributed in various "cohorts". Firstly to healt professionals and the occupants in nursing and care homes. Next those over 85, then over eighty and then over 75 etc. After the over seventies other vulnerable people with a medical condition. The government had started to talk about dosing by sector then - eg Teachers, Garda (Police) etc but on the advince of the Medical Committee monitoring the situation the system now is based on age alone. The disease seems to target the older people and the reduction in cases requiring medical care in hospital or indeed dying from the condition is market. The higher that age the more likely is death or hospitalisation.
A very slow relaxation of the draconian measures is starting finally from the 12th April. Schools return and people will be able to travel in their own county or 20Km outside their county. Meeting with others or visiting homes is still strongly discouraged. The vaccination programme is proceeding and by the end of june it is estimated that at over 80% of the population will have received at least one jab and possibly about 40% will be completely vaccinated but there is the caveat - depending on supply of vaccine.
8/4/2021
Here in Ireland the most severe restrictions have applied since Christmas Eve. Though the figures show a marked improvement since the eyewatering daily tolls in January they still remain higher that those that allowed the brief respite at the end of last November. The schools have remained closed up to March and are only now beginning to open very slowly.
The great hope is the arrival of vaccines. At this stage there are three approved - Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Astra Zenica and a forth one from Johnson & Johnson is expected to gain approval shortly (11/3/2021?). The two juristictions are operating separate policies. Northern Ireland operates using the British system which is one injection and then the second jab is scheduled for twelve weeks later. In addition their approval came through some weeks before the European Union.
South of the border (right) the supply has been negotiated by the European Commission but the supply has been less than efficient. A percentage of that supply is being allocated to the 27 members states. Ireland gets 1%. Nevertheless progress is proceeding to plan though very much dependent on a sometimes undependable delivery schedule from the suppliers. Health workers and nursing homes have been completed and progressing in "cohorts" over 85s then over 80s, 75s, 70, and 65s. Also those who are considered vulnerable. The second dose is administered four weeks after and this gives full immunity. The effects of the vaccine is now measurable and cases among those cohorts that have been vaccinated is appreciably reduced in both areas. (10/3/21)
The situation throughout the month continues to cause concern on both sides of the border. Now both areas have decided to continue the highest level of restrictions through February. Botha areas do show a decrease in the levels of contamination but death rates and admission to hospitals and needing ICU facilities continues to exceed emergency levels.
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Progress of the Virus as of today |
The Irish Government aims to reduce case numbers by 5 March and allow hospitals and ICU's and those who work in them time to recover from the current surge. They hope to allow for the phased opening of schools across February and March. Meanwhile it is hoped to get the vaccine out to more people in the first quarter of this year. There have been some delays in delivering the vaccines and possibly this will cause problems in the months ahead. There is also the worry of new variations of the virus. Two thirds of current cases are the so-called "UK virus" which was unknown here in December. There are "significant policy changes" to foreign travel so that anyone entering the state from overseas will be required to mandatory quarantine in a hotel or their home. Previously this was "advisory."
More cooperation is anticipated between both sides of the country. The message throughout the island is clear, "Stay at home!"
26/1/2021
Ireland has passed an unenviable record as the country with the highest daily rate of contraction of COVID-19 in the world. This is all the more remarkable as for much of December the country had among the lowest rates in Europe. So what happened?
Some people have been inclined to attribute this to the new variant first noted in the south east of England but the World Health Organisation says no. "Not due to the variant," says Dr Micheal Ryan of WHO, "but due to increased social mixing and reduction of physical distancing. New variant strains have not been the driver of new transmission.” From daily rates of 200 to 300 per day they have escalated to an average of 5000 to 7000 per day in two weeks. Intensive weekly testing of over 170000 per week has been giving readings of up to over 23% positive cases. The exponential growth has been almost vertical. This does show signs of decreasing but the strain on the health service is approaching alarming levels and though this is coping at present the next two weeks will create the greatest strain. Meanwhile the programme of vaccination is being rolled out. Figures are being quoted of about 0.8% of the population now covered and expected to be doubled by next week.
(12/1/2021)
As the rate of increase in cases continues the number of people requiring hospital treatment is starting to trail this. There are now more people in hospital than at any time during the pandemic at over 1000 with 88 in ICU. Doctors are reporting alarming numbers of people contacting them. They advise that we should regard everybody we meet as a carrier. Since there have been zero reports of the normal winter flu anybody who has flulike symptoms has COVID-19.
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Confirmed positive cases since start of pandemic! |
The government has now introduced even stricter measures including the closure of schools and educational facilities and construction sites until the end of January 2021. They are also introducing stricter test restrictions initially on travelers from the Britain (now outside of the EU) and South Africa. Restrictions from other EU countries will be instituted in consultation with the European Commission. Testing rates are higher than ever at over 170,000 per seven days and the positive results rate of 21.8% (under 2% just before Christmas). The "R" number is decreasing now from a high of 1.8 to 1.3 this afternoon. The aim has always to be below 1. In the North of Ireland which is in virtual full "lockdown" as well, the state examinations has been cancelled and the advice is basically the same as the rest of the island - "STAY AT HOME IN JANUARY!"
The one light at the end of the tunnel is the availability of vaccines. Today the European authorisation was made for a second vaccine and hopefully for a third by the end of January.
(6/1/2021)
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Progress of the Pandemic |
The Christmas holiday season heralded an unprecedented increase in the number of cases in both jurisdictions. The increase was beyond any of the projected figures and necessitated imposition of further restrictions on St Stephen's Day (26 Dec 2020). These were slightly less that the Level 5 that was experienced up to 1st December however as the week progressed it was evident that the those restrictions were not sufficient with cases increasing to almost 3000 cases reported on the Island on 30th December. The Chief Medical Officer of Ireland, Dr Tony Holohan, said
this increase was due increased socialisation over the period. However the most alarming thing was the increase of admissions to hospital with the condition. This had doubled in the past seven days.
Full 5 Level was introduced again on that evening - no home visits all non-essential activities forbidden and 5km limit on all travel except for essential shopping or medical purposes. The only light at the end of the tunnel was the commencement of the vaccination programme. Northern Ireland is under the British system which is slightly ahead of the EU system in operation south of the border. Nevertheless this will alter the situation substantially but in the meantime the restrictions and practices - physical distancing, washing hands, the wearing of face coverings especially in closed premises and good ventilation. (31/12/2020).
"After a truly horrible year, the arrival of vaccines today represent a bright new dawn of hope. Vaccination is a gateway of opportunity for Irish people to protect themselves against this awful virus.
The initial delivery (equal across all EU 27) is now in place at -71 deg C." (Irish Health Authority)
Today the number of cases advised to the Department of Health in Ireland is the highest since the pandemic started - 1296. (26/12/2020)
At a press conference in Dublin the Irish CMO announced that we were in the midst of a "third wave" of the disease. Case numbers seem to be heading for a rate of 10% per day in the last week. The Government have to decide what restrictions to bring in and when. It is thought that travel outside of county boundries will be reintroduced as early as St Stephen's Day and many commercial establishments are to be closed down again from lunchtime on Christmas Eve.
Meanwhile over 40 countries have halted all but the most urgent flights from Britain and in Ireland the 48 hour ban has been continued until 31st December 2020 "at least." There is some worry that flights from Britain are still flying into Belfast and the Government there seems unable to act decisively on the matter (unlike Scotland). Figures from Northern Ireland will not be reported until 28th December. (24/12/2020)
Due to a particularly contagious strain of the virus, which according to the English Health Secretary is "out of control," a severe restriction has been placed of much of the south east of England including London. Wales & Scotland have also introduced tough restrictions. Countries like Belgium & the Netherlands, Germany Italy and Ireland have introduced a ban on flights from Britain for the next 48 hours "at least". Though the number of cases in Ireland is low by European standards the Chief Medical Officer has said, "Every indicator of disease severity is moving in the wrong direction, more rapidly than we had anticipated." The cases in Ireland show 67% are under 45 years of age and the median age is 34 years old. However the great danger is spreading it to older and other vulnerable people. (20/12/2020)
The level five restrictions were lifted and a limited level three was introduced with most retail and eating establishments open but travel restricted to within county boundries. While this was the situation in the south a new short sharp system was adopted norh of the border. On 18th all travel restrictions were lifted though limited capacity was permitted on public transport. In both areas figures of both positive cases and deaths continue to rise. In the North particularly the hospitals were finding it difficult to cope and help was asked of the South in strengthening the ambulance service. The north are to introduce very strict restrictions on St Stephen's Day an almost complete lockdown until February. The South too is considering strengthening restrictions from late December. There is however hope in that it is believed that vaccinations can start in late December after the
EMA’s human medicines committee (CHMP) approval hopefully on 21st December but not later than 29th December. (19/12/2020)
The British government have announced the approval of one of the vaccination and hope to start a programme of vaccination as early as next week. A quantity of these will be allocated to Northern Ireland. Vaccinations in the rest of the island wait for approval from the European authorities in Amsterdam. Applications for approval for two were submitted to the European standards authority on Tuesday. (2/12/2020)
The six week under Level 5 is sceduled to en on 1st December. All retail outlet will open and from the 4th December restaurants will also be opened. Movements will be restricted to within each county until 18th December when movement throughout Ireland will be permitted until early January. The wearing of face coverings is been increased from indoors in shops etc to wearing outside on the streets. The restrictions did facilitated a marked improvement in the propagation of the disease though not to the degree hoped nevertheless it is remarkable that schools have remained open throughout the period and the "R" number was brought to under 1. The positivity rate was also reduced to around 2.6 and numbers in hospital have remained stable rather than reducing though nowhere near the figures in the first wave.
In the North however the incidence continues to be very high in comparison. At some periods the rate was three times that in the Republic. The authorities there have now introduced a very strict two week close down of all retail establishments from Thursday (26 Nov). In both jurisdictions strong controls are to be maintained on family visits. Strong emphasis is being mado on personnal responsibility. (28/11/2020)
Cases in both jurisdictions continue to increase exponentially and so both Governments have introduced extremely tough regulations. In the Republic the entire country has been placed under
Level 5 which is similar to the regulations as those introduced last March though slightly more nuanced - manufacturing is permitted as an "essential service" for example and schools remain open. These are scheduled to be in force until the end of November. In the North the regulations are also very difficult. Here the outbreaks are about half of those in the other part of the island though the population is less than one third however in both the daily increase in cases is greater than at the height of the initial phase. However because of the age of the majority of those catching the disease is under 60 the death rate and the number admitted to hospital is much lower. The attached (right) shows a comparison showing growing total in each area. (20/10/2020)
Due to a significent increase in cases over the weekend (Average daily number over 14 days is 430:Population near 5 million) the Government placed the entire 26 counties under
Level 3 restrictions at midnight on Tuesday (6th). The situation in the North is much worse (average 569 over 14 days: Population ca 1.5 million) and is the hardest hit on the island but because the regional government there is dependent on finances from Westminster they are unable sufficiently to back up restrictions financially. Today (Friday 9th) the number of confirmed 1080 in Northern Ireland - the highest since the pandemic started in the area. (9/10/2020)
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Top: Republic; Below N.Ireland Red:Total Cases Green: Total Deaths Blue: Daily Report of cases
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The situation on the island is causing concern as numbers of cases continue to rise albeit at a slower rate than in March/April. Restrictions have been increased in both jurisdictions though the rate of increase in the North (Pop ca 1.5m) seems to be more severe - there were in excess of 2500 cases in the seven days to 2nd October. There is a warning of another complete lockdown. The increase in the Republic (Pop Approx 4.9m) over the same period is over 2700. (2/10/2020)
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